Sustainable Productivity Growth in Agriculture: The Role of Shifts in R&D Investments and Technology

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to evaluate the long-term prospects of sustainable productivity growth linked to plausible assumptions on public agricultural R&D investments as the key productivity driver. Second, it investigates the role of changing R&D focus from yield maximization to input saving technologies (fertilizers and pesticides). The projections using CGE model MAGNET identify China, India and Brazil as regions with high productivity growth from agricultural R&D while Sub-Saharan Africa regions will struggle with low productivity growth rates and substantial increase in GHG emissions. Overall, GHG emissions are projected to grow more than agricultural output. However it is found that sustainable agricultural productivity growth could become feasible under the reorientation of R&D programs in high income countries (with use of chemical inputs declining as much as 30%) where these policies can make an important contribution to sustainability while food security concerns are limited and spillover effects in terms of higher food prices are low.

Citation

Křístková, Z. S., M. van Dijk, R. M'Barek, H. van Meijl, and T. Ratinger. 2026. “Sustainable Productivity Growth in Agriculture: The Role of Shifts in R&D Investments and Technology.” Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy1–21https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.70069.

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Funding acknowledgement

Funding was provided by the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (on the technical development of the agricultural R&D database), and the Horizon Europe 101060075 BRIGHTSPACE project (Designing a Roadmap for Effective and Sustainable Strategies for Assessing and Addressing the Challenges of EU Agriculture to Navigate within a Safe and Just Operating Space) 

The reuse of this document is authorised under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International (CCBY 4.0) licence (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This means that reuse is allowed provided appropriate credit is given and any changes are indicated. 

BrightSpace Further information

BrightSpace Horizon Europe project Grant Agreement No. 101060075 https://cordis.europa.eu/project/id/101060075
CALL: Innovative governance, environmental observations and digital solutions in support of the Green Deal
WORK PROGRAMME Topic ID: HORIZON-CL6-2021-GOVERNANCE-01-12 EU agriculture within a safe and just operating space and planetary boundaries

BrightSpace Project coordination: Wageningen Economic Research, The Hague, NL Contact: brightspace.wser@wur.nl | Website: www.brightspace-project.eu

Project duration: 1 November 2022 – 31 October 2027